Tipping Point Quick Hits (01.11.24)

Taiwan's election, Blinken's "solution," and Scorsese's Jesus film

Taiwan: A Choice Between War and Peace?

One of the strongest democracies in Asia faces a consequential election this Saturday as voters elect a new president to replace Tsai Ing-wen, who cannot run again due to term limit regulations. Three candidates are hoping to replace her, and all three bring different perspectives related to the most pressing issue in Taiwan: Its relationship with China.

The fate of Taiwan may be decided in this election. The implications could impact the entire world.

In fact, China has framed the election as “a choice between war and peace” and has not ruled out the use of force against Taiwan.

As a reminder, Taiwan has been governed independently of China for more than 70 years, but China continues to insist the island is not independent and should be considered part of China. The United States maintains unofficial relations with Taiwan due to our support of democracy. We provide Taiwan with defensive weapons and the Biden administration has vowed to come to Taiwan’s aid if China invades:

Most of Taiwan’s 24 million people are in favor of maintaining the status quo, neither formally declaring independence nor becoming part of China. 

The status of Taiwan is among the biggest flashpoints in relations between the U.S. and China, the world’s two largest economies. While the U.S. says it has no preferred candidate in the Taiwan election, China has warned the U.S. against intervening in what it calls an “internal affair.”

“Internal” apparently doesn’t apply to China, which has been attempting to influence the election with disinformation campaigns against Lai Ching-te, who served as Tsai’s vice president. He has said he is committed to maintaining democratic independence in Taiwan, standing up to the Chinese Communist Party’s threats to annex the island. In December, he said “We must not go back to China.” He is seen as the front-runner and Beijing views him as a problem.

Running against him is Hou Yu-ih, a former police chief who prefers a closer relationship to China and has ultimately advocated for reunification with China. Another candidate, Ko Wen-je—a former surgeon and mayor of Taipei—is a member of a third party who wants to avoid confrontation through dialogue and “find a balance between the U.S. and China.”

China has been closely watching Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and weighing the potential international response should it invade Taiwan. It is also paying close attention to this election. Earlier this week, Taiwan’s defense ministry detected multiple Chinese military aircraft and military ships surrounding the island, along with Chinese balloons in the airspace. And last weekend, China announced sanctions on American defense-related companies in response to their arms sales to Taiwan, saying they undermined stability in the region.

When China launched a satellite earlier this week, Taiwan issued an emergency air-raid alert to all citizens warning them to “be aware for your safety.” The island of 23 million people is nervous.

This is a tense moment between China and Taiwan, and any conflict between the two will inevitably involve the United States. Could the election of a pro-independence candidate like Lai Ching-te be another poke in the eye of China by the people of Taiwan? Would that lead to a future invasion of the island? And could a Chinese invasion of Taiwan lead to a war between China and the United States?

All of these things are possible. An invasion of Taiwan would have a profound economic impact on the world. And a war between China and the U.S. would quickly turn into a world war.

That’s why this election matters.

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Blinken Still Pursuing Two-State Solution

This week, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited the Middle East for the fourth time since the attack by Hamas more than 90 days ago. He met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday, along with his war cabinet, and is still seeking a path toward resolving the conflict.